Abstract
Mean global temperature could reach 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2042, leading to significant impacts on Southern Ocean whales. According to state-of-the-art climate models, under 2°C global warming, the area of the Southern Ocean covered by sea ice is projected to shrink by an average of 10-15%. This reduction could be up to 30% in some regions, meaning that species that are heavily dependent on sea ice, such as the Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) are projected to lose between 5-30% of ice-associated habitat within 40 years – little more than the life time of an individual whale. Reductions in ice cover is also likely to affect the ice-dependent Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba). Less availability of Antarctic krill would have significant ramifications for both resident and migratory whales, as well as the Antarctic ecosystem, as these small shrimp-like zooplankton are a critical component of the Antarctic food web.
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