Abstract
The suite of climate models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report shows a wide range of predictive variance for modeled diagnostics, including sea ice concentrations. Using the SRESA1B scenario, the model aggregate predicts a 35% reduction in sea ice around Antarctica by the time the 2°C warming benchmark is reached in the middle of this century (~2042, according to the ensemble). A subset of models is selected for their ability to accurately represent modern sea ice concentrations in the Southern Ocean. Comparing the SRES A1B and A2 scenarios through the next century as simulated by the ensemble, the future sea ice extent, seasonality and thickness in Antarctica’s Ross and Weddell seas is assessed.
spacer